Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Celtics (69%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Celtics (-11.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (50%) · 76ers at 31¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
4
76ers 50%
2 arb excluded
$1.9K
$37.16
65.6¢ → 31¢
-53% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 31%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | 76ersavg 64.8¢ | $849.57 | $839.31 | -$10.26 | 56% 502-393 (895) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Celticsavg 30.5¢ | $730.14 | $614 | -$116.14 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 30.5¢ | $566 | $398.92 | -$167.08 | |
| └ 76ers leg | 76ersavg 59.9¢ | $164.14 | $215.08 | +$50.94 | |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Celticsavg 41.1¢ | $176.45 | $159.04 | -$17.41 | 59% 3119-2207 (5326) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 41.1¢ | $108.45 | $95.04 | -$13.41 | |
| └ 76ers leg | 76ersavg 68¢ | $68 | $64 | -$4 | |
 RN1CTR | 76ersavg 71.9¢ | $130.2 | $123.13 | -$7.07 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
LI Limousin | Celticsavg 38.7¢ | $68.24 | $121.53 | +$53.29 | 29% 313-784 (1097) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Celticsavg 21¢ | $1.68 | $2.88 | +$1.2 | 28% 298-765 (1063) |
Invested
$849.57
Value
$839.31
PnL
-$10.26
Record
56%
502-393 (895)
Invested
$730.14
Value
$614
PnL
-$116.14
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Both legs:
Invested
$176.45
Value
$159.04
PnL
-$17.41
Record
59%
3119-2207 (5326)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$130.2
Value
$123.13
PnL
-$7.07
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$68.24
Value
$121.53
PnL
+$53.29
Record
29%
313-784 (1097)
Invested
$1.68
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$1.2
Record
28%
298-765 (1063)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.