Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 205.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over99¢Under1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$162.39

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 98.6¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$663.89

Total Shares670

Combined PnL+$55.45

Under5 traders

Total Value$290.27

Total Shares2,813

Combined PnL-$217.84

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 89.8¢	$504.02	$558.22	+$54.2	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
FO forecastication4CTR	Underavg 21¢	$371.92	$177.1	-$194.81	11% 24-189 (213)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 22.5¢	$214.11	$102.45	-$67.06	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Over leg	Overavg 85.2¢	$60.08	$63.45	+$3.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 22.5¢	$87.69	$39	-$70.43
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 11.3¢	$100.93	$91.78	-$9.15	56% 502-393 (895)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 84.5¢	$73.49	$78.2	+$4.7	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 75¢	$30.93	$27.48	-$3.45	55% 399-332 (731)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 17.2¢	$26.82	$14.6	-$10.22	49% 446-472 (918)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$4.36	$4.36	+$0	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$6.09	$2.44	-$3.65	28% 304-772 (1076)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$504.02

Value

$558.22

PnL

+$54.2

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

forecastication4CTR

Under

Invested

$371.92

Value

$177.1

PnL

-$194.81

Record

11%

24-189 (213)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$214.11

Value

$102.45

PnL

-$67.06

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Over$60.0885.2¢+$3.37

Under$87.6922.5¢-$70.43

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$100.93

Value

$91.78

PnL

-$9.15

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$73.49

Value

$78.2

PnL

+$4.7

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$30.93

Value

$27.48

PnL

-$3.45

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.82

Value

$14.6

PnL

-$10.22

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.36

Value

$4.36

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.09

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$3.65

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.