Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Raptors (52%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Raptors (-1.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (71%) · Celtics at 49¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12

Raptors52¢Celtics48¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 71%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$133.74

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 48.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors52%

Celtics49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,392

Combined PnL-$165.69

Raptors2 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,089

Combined PnL+$31.94

Celtics — 71%Raptors — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Celticsavg 55.1¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$267.01	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Raptorsavg 45¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0	53% 290-259 (549)
RN1ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 53.4¢	$905.69	$867.55	-$38.14	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 53.4¢	$660.47	$636.6	-$23.87
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 51.5¢	$245.23	$230.95	-$14.27
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 57.3¢	$942.63	$863.95	-$78.68	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 57.3¢	$714.61	$642.42	-$72.19
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 49.9¢	$228.02	$221.52	-$6.49
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Celticsavg 46.7¢	$691.88	$667.34	-$24.54	55% 719-584 (1303)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Celticsavg 23.9¢	$121.78	$247.47	+$125.69	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
LI Limousin	Raptorsavg 32¢	$92.93	$124.87	+$31.94	30% 401-920 (1321)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Celticsavg 69¢	$204.94	$122.02	-$29.02	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 69¢	$86.94	$69.3	-$31.36
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 43¢	$50.38	$52.72	+$2.34
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Celticsavg 48¢	$8.8	$8.89	+$0.09	39% 394-619 (1013)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Celticsavg 48¢	$3.78	$3.86	+$0.08	49% 692-733 (1425)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Celtics

Invested

$2,492.65

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$267.01

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Raptors

Invested

$1,709.54

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

RN1ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$905.69

Value

$867.55

PnL

-$38.14

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

Both legs:

Raptors$660.4753.4¢-$23.87

Celtics$245.2351.5¢-$14.27

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$942.63

Value

$863.95

PnL

-$78.68

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

Both legs:

Raptors$714.6157.3¢-$72.19

Celtics$228.0249.9¢-$6.49

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Celtics

Invested

$691.88

Value

$667.34

PnL

-$24.54

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

FlaznorpCTR

Celtics

Invested

$121.78

Value

$247.47

PnL

+$125.69

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

Limousin

Raptors

Invested

$92.93

Value

$124.87

PnL

+$31.94

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$204.94

Value

$122.02

PnL

-$29.02

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Celtics$86.9469¢-$31.36

Raptors$50.3843¢+$2.34

sentrioCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$8.8

Value

$8.89

PnL

+$0.09

Record

39%

394-619 (1013)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$3.78

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.