Spread: Raptors (-7.5)

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (36%) · Celtics at 72¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Raptors28¢Celtics72¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 36%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$58.38

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 71.5¢

+28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Raptors28%

Celtics72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,965

Combined PnL+$179.71

Raptors7 traders

Total Value$638.78

Total Shares2,066

Combined PnL-$238.08

Celtics — 36%Raptors — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 62.6¢	$949.16	$962.36	+$13.2	55% 719-584 (1303)
RN1CTR	Raptorsavg 41.3¢	$550.99	$379.96	-$171.03	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
MA MadridTime	Celticsavg 43¢	$132.76	$220.75	+$87.99	31% 410-897 (1307)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Celticsavg 41¢	$100.86	$175.89	+$75.03	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 54¢	$112.98	$116.47	+$3.49	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 46¢	$90.39	$79.78	-$8.26	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 43.1¢	$58.7	$64.08	+$5.38	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 45.5¢	$38.1	$41.85	+$3.75	49% 692-733 (1425)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Raptorsavg 43¢	$99.05	$41.46	-$57.59	53% 290-259 (549)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 39¢	$39	$28.5	-$10.5	53% 5815-5180 (10995)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 17¢	$2.97	$3.14	+$0.17	31% 412-918 (1330)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$949.16

Value

$962.36

PnL

+$13.2

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

RN1CTR

Raptors

Invested

$550.99

Value

$379.96

PnL

-$171.03

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

MadridTime

Celtics

Invested

$132.76

Value

$220.75

PnL

+$87.99

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Celtics

Invested

$100.86

Value

$175.89

PnL

+$75.03

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$112.98

Value

$116.47

PnL

+$3.49

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$90.39

Value

$79.78

PnL

-$8.26

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$58.7

Value

$64.08

PnL

+$5.38

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$38.1

Value

$41.85

PnL

+$3.75

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$99.05

Value

$41.46

PnL

-$57.59

Record

53%

290-259 (549)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$39

Value

$28.5

PnL

-$10.5

Record

53%

5815-5180 (10995)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.97

Value

$3.14

PnL

+$0.17

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.