Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Cavaliers (52%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (63%) · Hornets at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Cavaliers52¢Hornets48¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 63%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$64.01

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 48.5¢

-6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Cavaliers52%

Hornets49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,603

Combined PnL-$71.71

Cavaliers3 traders

Total Value$244.16

Total Shares479

Combined PnL+$7.7

Hornets — 63%Cavaliers — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrHornets 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hornetsavg 51.8¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$73.61	54% 20289-17134 (37423)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Hornetsavg 49¢	$160.72	$162.36	+$1.64	52% 49211-46180 (95391)
SN SnakeBall	Cavaliersavg 48.7¢	$109.98	$116.44	+$6.46	50% 49148-48686 (97834)
GC GC-P<$100	Cavaliersavg 51¢	$89.25	$90.13	+$0.88	57% 22635-16890 (39525)
NM NM-P<$100	Cavaliersavg 51¢	$37.23	$37.6	+$0.36	57% 22786-16894 (39680)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 49¢	$31.09	$31.59	+$0.5	51% 28741-28115 (56856)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 53¢	$2.65	$2.48	-$0.18	53% 14808-13030 (27838)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 52¢	$1.08	$1.01	-$0.07	56% 8974-7089 (16063)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,676

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$73.61

Record

54%

20289-17134 (37423)

FlaznorpCTR

Hornets

Invested

$160.72

Value

$162.36

PnL

+$1.64

Record

52%

49211-46180 (95391)

SnakeBall

Cavaliers

Invested

$109.98

Value

$116.44

PnL

+$6.46

Record

50%

49148-48686 (97834)

GC-P<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$89.25

Value

$90.13

PnL

+$0.88

Record

57%

22635-16890 (39525)

NM-P<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$37.23

Value

$37.6

PnL

+$0.36

Record

57%

22786-16894 (39680)

sentrioCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$31.09

Value

$31.59

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

28741-28115 (56856)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

14808-13030 (27838)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.07

Record

56%

8974-7089 (16063)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Cavaliers 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrHornets 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.