Spread: Knicks (-4.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (33%) · Knicks at 51¢ · $689 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Knicks
6
Knicks 33%
$689.39
$21.07
48.5¢ → 50.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidKnicks at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Knicks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Knicksavg 47.1¢ | $244.8 | $260 | +$15.2 | 30% 371-861 (1232) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Knicksavg 50¢ | $254.75 | $259.84 | +$5.09 | 1% 5-496 (501) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Cavaliersavg 49¢ | $105.27 | $106.35 | +$1.07 | 51% 442-417 (859) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 51.2¢ | $35.75 | $35.75 | +$0.01 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 50¢ | $25.25 | $25 | -$0.25 | 31% 375-842 (1217) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Cavaliersavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.45 | -$0.05 | 32% 281-611 (892) |
Invested
$244.8
Value
$260
PnL
+$15.2
Record
30%
371-861 (1232)
Invested
$254.75
Value
$259.84
PnL
+$5.09
Record
1%
5-496 (501)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$105.27
Value
$106.35
PnL
+$1.07
Record
51%
442-417 (859)
Invested
$35.75
Value
$35.75
PnL
+$0.01
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$25.25
Value
$25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
31%
375-842 (1217)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.05
Record
32%
281-611 (892)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.