Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Timberwolves (66%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (50%) · Mavericks at 35¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Mavericks35¢Timberwolves65¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$85.04

Smart Money Entry

33.4¢ → 34.5¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 66%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mavericks35%

Timberwolves66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks5 traders

Total Value$906.19

Total Shares2,517

Combined PnL+$82.19

Timberwolves5 traders

Total Value$379.76

Total Shares568

Combined PnL+$2.85

Mavericks — 50%Timberwolves — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 67.6¢	$839.7	$845.34	+$5.64	48% 82-88 (170)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 67.6¢	$504.7	$485.34	-$19.36
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 33.5¢	$335	$360	+$25
TY Tys0n8686CTR	Mavericksavg 32.9¢	$787.73	$722.09	+$78.16	—
fyrsken	Timberwolvesavg 65¢	$249.01	$249.1	+$0.09	—
OD OddstormARB<$100	Timberwolvesavg 66.6¢	$216.88	$214.88	-$2	23% 36-124 (160)
└ Timberwolves leg	Timberwolvesavg 66.6¢	$121.91	$119.98	-$1.93
└ Mavericks leg	Mavericksavg 34.5¢	$94.97	$94.9	-$0.06
PU purplegattoCTR	Mavericksavg 35.1¢	$126.96	$130.1	+$3.14	69% 2587-1183 (3770)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Timberwolvesavg 64¢	$64.83	$66.35	+$1.52	57% 3234-2442 (5676)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Timberwolvesavg 66.1¢	$32.86	$34.18	+$1.32	50% 3301-3258 (6559)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 37¢	$30.34	$29.52	-$0.82	52% 128-120 (248)
38 38791873984189<$100	Timberwolvesavg 65¢	$23.55	$23.59	+$0.04	48% 1454-1600 (3054)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 33.2¢	$20.9	$22.65	+$1.76	49% 698-741 (1439)
SU suntori<$100	Timberwolvesavg 66¢	$6.66	$6.54	-$0.12	—
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 37¢	$1.87	$1.82	-$0.05	55% 699-561 (1260)

GaditimaARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$839.7

Value

$845.34

PnL

+$5.64

Record

48%

82-88 (170)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$504.767.6¢-$19.36

Mavericks$33533.5¢+$25

Tys0n8686CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$787.73

Value

$722.09

PnL

+$78.16

Record

—

fyrsken

Timberwolves

Invested

$249.01

Value

$249.1

PnL

+$0.09

Record

—

OddstormARB<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$216.88

Value

$214.88

PnL

-$2

Record

23%

36-124 (160)

Both legs:

Timberwolves$121.9166.6¢-$1.93

Mavericks$94.9734.5¢-$0.06

purplegattoCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$126.96

Value

$130.1

PnL

+$3.14

Record

69%

2587-1183 (3770)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$64.83

Value

$66.35

PnL

+$1.52

Record

57%

3234-2442 (5676)

6512395314597884<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$32.86

Value

$34.18

PnL

+$1.32

Record

50%

3301-3258 (6559)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$30.34

Value

$29.52

PnL

-$0.82

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

38791873984189<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$23.55

Value

$23.59

PnL

+$0.04

Record

48%

1454-1600 (3054)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$20.9

Value

$22.65

PnL

+$1.76

Record

49%

698-741 (1439)

suntori<$100

Timberwolves

Invested

$6.66

Value

$6.54

PnL

-$0.12

Record

—

ghorrockCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.87

Value

$1.82

PnL

-$0.05

Record

55%

699-561 (1260)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Timberwolves 66%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMavericks 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.