Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Warriors, while the market favors Rockets (53%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Rockets (-5.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (50%) · Warriors at 48¢ · $581 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Warriors
6
Warriors 50%
$581.15
-$0.47
47.9¢ → 47.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidWarriors at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Rockets 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Warriorsavg 48.4¢ | $422.77 | $300.92 | -$6.9 | 52% 422-389 (811) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Warriorsavg 47¢ | $125.39 | $128.05 | +$2.67 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Rocketsavg 51.9¢ | $79.72 | $79.87 | +$0.15 | 57% 3183-2408 (5591) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Rocketsavg 48¢ | $37.92 | $41.09 | +$3.16 | 46% 255-304 (559) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Warriorsavg 47¢ | $28.32 | $28.62 | +$0.3 | 37% 325-557 (882) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Rocketsavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $2.6 | +$0.15 | 30% 361-847 (1208) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$422.77
Value
$300.92
PnL
-$6.9
Record
52%
422-389 (811)
Invested
$125.39
Value
$128.05
PnL
+$2.67
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
Invested
$79.72
Value
$79.87
PnL
+$0.15
Record
57%
3183-2408 (5591)
Invested
$37.92
Value
$41.09
PnL
+$3.16
Record
46%
255-304 (559)
Invested
$28.32
Value
$28.62
PnL
+$0.3
Record
37%
325-557 (882)
Invested
$2.45
Value
$2.6
PnL
+$0.15
Record
30%
361-847 (1208)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.