Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 50¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 71%
$5.1K
$48.38
49.6¢ → 49.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$20.23 | 48% 536-588 (1124) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$19.48 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
0A 0x0a77...9d74CTR | Overavg 50¢ | $989.01 | $998.95 | +$9.94 | — |
IC ic4creamCTR | Overavg 51¢ | $117.3 | $116.15 | -$1.15 | 2% 11-448 (459) |
AA 0xaa3c...5607CTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $24.88 | $24.64 | -$0.24 | — |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $24.13 | $24.37 | +$0.24 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $12.57 | $12.44 | -$0.13 | 53% 1852-1667 (3519) |
Invested
$1,982.76
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$20.23
Record
48%
536-588 (1124)
Invested
$1,947.99
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$19.48
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Invested
$989.01
Value
$998.95
PnL
+$9.94
Record
—
Invested
$117.3
Value
$116.15
PnL
-$1.15
Record
2%
11-448 (459)
Invested
$24.88
Value
$24.64
PnL
-$0.24
Record
—
Invested
$24.13
Value
$24.37
PnL
+$0.24
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
Invested
$12.57
Value
$12.44
PnL
-$0.13
Record
53%
1852-1667 (3519)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.