Consensus PnL $495K · win rate 61% (2614–1689, n=4303) · PM monthly #65 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$495.1K
Record
2614W / 1689L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 4303 settled
Batting Avg
43.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1099
Source
PM monthly #65
Trades
2,021
Markets
4,922
Volume
$19.8M
Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 12 on the consensus side (8%)- Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?No $19K · now 65¢ · in at 67¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $11K · now 31¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?No $7.8K · now 68¢ · in at 65¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No $5.1K · now 33¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?No $3.9K · now 27¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $3.7K · now 48¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (39% of 57)
- Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Yes $3.5K · now 20¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?No $3.0K · now 30¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
2,426 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 59¢- Tennis
+60 pts
side won 99% of 89 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +61%
- MMA
+61 pts
side won 100% of 30 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +56%
- College Football
+49 pts
side won 100% of 214 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +50%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 100% of 38)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 100% of 557)
- 50–70¢: 49%(won 100% of 1190)
- 70¢ and up: 26%(won 100% of 641)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.