Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 38%
$2.5K
$14.04
51¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA KasonWong | Underavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$0 | 23% 7-24 (31) |
LI LimousinCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $667.61 | $674.42 | +$6.81 | 30% 372-863 (1235) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 51¢ | $390.3 | $394.13 | +$3.83 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $306.41 | $309.53 | +$3.13 | 31% 375-842 (1217) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $64.21 | $63.58 | -$0.63 | 37% 340-569 (909) |
73 739633786CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $54.35 | $54.9 | +$0.55 | 6% 11-189 (200) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $12 | $12.25 | +$0.25 | 48% 658-706 (1364) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $4.59 | $4.68 | +$0.1 | 54% 562-474 (1036) |
Invested
$1,020
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
23%
7-24 (31)
Invested
$667.61
Value
$674.42
PnL
+$6.81
Record
30%
372-863 (1235)
Invested
$390.3
Value
$394.13
PnL
+$3.83
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$306.41
Value
$309.53
PnL
+$3.13
Record
31%
375-842 (1217)
Invested
$64.21
Value
$63.58
PnL
-$0.63
Record
37%
340-569 (909)
Invested
$54.35
Value
$54.9
PnL
+$0.55
Record
6%
11-189 (200)
Invested
$12
Value
$12.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
658-706 (1364)
Invested
$4.59
Value
$4.68
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
562-474 (1036)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.