Spread: Suns (-12.5)

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Suns (88%) · Suns at 59¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Suns59¢Clippers41¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Suns

Consensus Traders

Suns 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$29.56

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 58.5¢

+16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Suns59%

Clippers42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clippers1 trader

Total Value$746.38

Total Shares1,798

Combined PnL-$132.57

Suns7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,494

Combined PnL+$162.13

Clippers — 13%Suns — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Clippersavg 48.9¢	$878.95	$746.38	-$132.57	47% 500-558 (1058)
FL Flaznorp	Sunsavg 51.6¢	$579.81	$657.36	+$77.55	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
RN1	Sunsavg 46.4¢	$243.45	$307.18	+$63.73	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
65 6512395314597884	Sunsavg 51.5¢	$214.05	$214.9	+$0.85	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
38 38791873984189	Sunsavg 52.9¢	$188	$197.31	+$9.32	48% 959-1032 (1991)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Clippersavg 56¢	$119.84	$111.48	-$8.36	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 51.5¢	$57.41	$58.53	+$1.11
└ Clippers leg	Clippersavg 56¢	$62.42	$52.95	-$9.47
PA Pan9X<$100	Sunsavg 42.4¢	$34.32	$44.96	+$10.64	49% 446-472 (918)
VE Venusian<$100	Sunsavg 23¢	$1.45	$1.48	+$0.03	28% 304-772 (1076)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Sunsavg 58¢	$1.38	$1.39	+$0.01	56% 502-393 (895)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Clippers

Invested

$878.95

Value

$746.38

PnL

-$132.57

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

Flaznorp

Suns

Invested

$579.81

Value

$657.36

PnL

+$77.55

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

RN1

Suns

Invested

$243.45

Value

$307.18

PnL

+$63.73

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

6512395314597884

Suns

Invested

$214.05

Value

$214.9

PnL

+$0.85

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

38791873984189

Suns

Invested

$188

Value

$197.31

PnL

+$9.32

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Clippers

Invested

$119.84

Value

$111.48

PnL

-$8.36

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

Both legs:

Suns$57.4151.5¢+$1.11

Clippers$62.4256¢-$9.47

Pan9X<$100

Suns

Invested

$34.32

Value

$44.96

PnL

+$10.64

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Venusian<$100

Suns

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.48

PnL

+$0.03

Record

28%

304-772 (1076)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Suns

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.01

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

Research grade

AvoidSuns at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Suns

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Suns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.