Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 220.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 57¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$38.22

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 57¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$622.73

Total Shares1,539

Combined PnL-$143.42

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,625

Combined PnL+$181.64

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 49.9¢	$725.71	$603.28	-$122.43	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 51.6¢	$418.12	$579.23	+$161.11	56% 504-395 (899)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 58¢	$392.63	$372.64	-$19.99	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 57.9¢	$100.6	$126.76	+$26.16	48% 969-1052 (2021)
alpheclabs2<$100	Overavg 54¢	$28.74	$43.11	+$14.37	46% 91-106 (197)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 39.3¢	$14.95	$7.22	-$7.73	49% 450-474 (924)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 57¢	$13.79	$6.53	-$7.26	50% 191-194 (385)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 55.1¢	$9.46	$4.63	-$4.83	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$2.23	$1.06	-$1.17	49% 220-229 (449)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$725.71

Value

$603.28

PnL

-$122.43

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$418.12

Value

$579.23

PnL

+$161.11

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$392.63

Value

$372.64

PnL

-$19.99

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$100.6

Value

$126.76

PnL

+$26.16

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

alpheclabs2<$100

Over

Invested

$28.74

Value

$43.11

PnL

+$14.37

Record

46%

91-106 (197)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.95

Value

$7.22

PnL

-$7.73

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.79

Value

$6.53

PnL

-$7.26

Record

50%

191-194 (385)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.46

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$4.83

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.23

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$1.17

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.