Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 230.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 71¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over30¢Under70¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$6.91

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 70.5¢

-9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over30%

Under71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,707

Combined PnL-$65.28

Over3 traders

Total Value$339.31

Total Shares1,115

Combined PnL+$58.36

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 77.9¢	$1.1K	$985.98	-$93.58	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 23.9¢	$261.15	$330.83	+$69.68	56% 502-393 (895)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 67¢	$117.67	$136.7	+$19.04	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
└ Under leg	Underavg 67¢	$71.02	$69.43	-$1.59
└ Over leg	Overavg 23.9¢	$46.65	$67.27	+$20.62
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 83¢	$107.84	$109.7	+$1.86	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Under leg	Underavg 83¢	$81.34	$83.3	+$1.96
└ Over leg	Overavg 15.1¢	$26.5	$26.4	-$0.1
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 63¢	$75.02	$101.22	+$26.2	49% 220-228 (448)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 83¢	$80.51	$82.45	+$1.94	62% 2355-1453 (3808)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 83¢	$74.7	$76.5	+$1.8	64% 179-99 (278)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 62.6¢	$16	$14.37	-$1.63	55% 399-332 (731)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$17.66	$7.57	-$10.09	48% 959-1032 (1991)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$2.14	$0.91	-$1.22	49% 446-472 (918)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,110.01

Value

$985.98

PnL

-$93.58

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$261.15

Value

$330.83

PnL

+$69.68

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$117.67

Value

$136.7

PnL

+$19.04

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Both legs:

Under$71.0267¢-$1.59

Over$46.6523.9¢+$20.62

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$107.84

Value

$109.7

PnL

+$1.86

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Invested

$75.02

Value

$101.22

PnL

+$26.2

Record

49%

220-228 (448)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$80.51

Value

$82.45

PnL

+$1.94

Record

62%

2355-1453 (3808)

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$74.7

Value

$76.5

PnL

+$1.8

Record

64%

179-99 (278)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$16

Value

$14.37

PnL

-$1.63

Record

55%

399-332 (731)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.66

Value

$7.57

PnL

-$10.09

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.14

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$1.22

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.