Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 232.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 86¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Over14¢Under86¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$18.51

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 85.5¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over14%

Under86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$989.43

Total Shares3,292

Combined PnL-$28.15

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,692

Combined PnL+$9.63

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 25¢	$477.79	$611.57	+$133.78	54% 217-188 (405)
RN1	Underavg 81¢	$613.7	$603.78	+$4.58	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 61.3¢	$411.89	$550.88	+$138.99	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 75.8¢	$406.97	$370.91	-$36.06	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Underavg 85¢	$425	$340	-$85	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 36.9¢	$340.95	$295.42	-$45.53	56% 504-395 (899)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 85¢	$212.5	$116.28	-$40.13	48% 969-1052 (2021)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 68.7¢	$90.38	$95.38	+$5	49% 450-474 (924)
└ Under leg	Underavg 68.7¢	$67.9	$67.22	-$0.68
└ Over leg	Overavg 25.5¢	$22.48	$28.16	+$5.68
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 43.4¢	$198.84	$82.44	-$116.4	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 54¢	$54	$82	+$28	64% 180-100 (280)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 75.5¢	$7.55	$6.8	-$0.75	54% 401-336 (737)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$477.79

Value

$611.57

PnL

+$133.78

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

RN1

Under

Invested

$613.7

Value

$603.78

PnL

+$4.58

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$411.89

Value

$550.88

PnL

+$138.99

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$406.97

Value

$370.91

PnL

-$36.06

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Under

Invested

$425

Value

$340

PnL

-$85

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$340.95

Value

$295.42

PnL

-$45.53

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$212.5

Value

$116.28

PnL

-$40.13

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$90.38

Value

$95.38

PnL

+$5

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

Both legs:

Under$67.968.7¢-$0.68

Over$22.4825.5¢+$5.68

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$198.84

Value

$82.44

PnL

-$116.4

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$54

Value

$82

PnL

+$28

Record

64%

180-100 (280)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$7.55

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$0.75

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.