Spread: Lakers (-12.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (40%) · Lakers at 54¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 12

Lakers54¢Bucks46¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lakers

Consensus Traders

Lakers 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

$12.79

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 53.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers54%

Bucks47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lakers4 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares12,330

Combined PnL+$187.64

Bucks6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares7,814

Combined PnL-$174.85

Lakers — 40%Bucks — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bucks) and the top 1000 (8 on Lakers) disagree here.

sniperLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBucks 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Lakersavg 52.2¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$79.04	53% 1791-1599 (3390)
AP AppleTiiime	Lakersavg 48.9¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$87.16	52% 86-78 (164)
73 739633786CTR	Bucksavg 48.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$78.39	6% 11-189 (200)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Bucksavg 51¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$89.74	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
RJ RJW1	Lakersavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$21.43	47% 118-132 (250)
NM NM-PCTR	Bucksavg 47.2¢	$186	$183.16	-$2.85	59% 3476-2367 (5843)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Bucksavg 47¢	$175.78	$173.91	-$1.87	51% 1822-1783 (3605)
GC GC-PCTR	Bucksavg 47¢	$164.5	$162.75	-$1.75	20% 97-381 (478)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bucksavg 48¢	$107.97	$109.06	+$1.09	48% 1299-1404 (2703)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 48¢	$59.52	$60.14	+$0.62
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 51¢	$48.45	$48.93	+$0.48
PA Pan9X<$100	Lakersavg 51¢	$12.75	$12.75	+$0	48% 658-706 (1364)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bucksavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.65	-$0.25	32% 281-611 (892)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Lakers

Invested

$3,160.94

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$79.04

Record

53%

1791-1599 (3390)

AppleTiiime

Lakers

Invested

$2,006.45

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$87.16

Record

52%

86-78 (164)

739633786CTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,760.76

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$78.39

Record

11-189 (200)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Bucks

Invested

$1,580.49

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$89.74

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

RJW1

Lakers

Invested

$1,093.14

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$21.43

Record

47%

118-132 (250)

NM-PCTR

Bucks

Invested

$186

Value

$183.16

PnL

-$2.85

Record

59%

3476-2367 (5843)

FlaznorpCTR

Bucks

Invested

$175.78

Value

$173.91

PnL

-$1.87

Record

51%

1822-1783 (3605)

GC-PCTR

Bucks

Invested

$164.5

Value

$162.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

20%

97-381 (478)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$107.97

Value

$109.06

PnL

+$1.09

Record

48%

1299-1404 (2703)

Both legs:

Bucks$59.5248¢+$0.62

Lakers$48.4551¢+$0.48

Pan9X<$100

Lakers

Invested

$12.75

Value

$12.75

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

658-706 (1364)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bucks

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.25

Record

32%

281-611 (892)

Research grade

AvoidLakers at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Lakers

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bucks) and the top 1000 (8 on Lakers) disagree here.

sniperLakers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBucks 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedBucks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.