Heat vs. Clippers: O/U 233.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$2.02
51¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 50.3¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$18.58 | 54% 18039-15167 (33206) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.3¢ | $631.64 | $615.1 | -$16.54 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.2¢ | $410.82 | $408.79 | -$2.04 | |
JO JoeyAroyyOO | Underavg 51¢ | $452.2 | $456.69 | +$4.49 | 46% 72-83 (155) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Overavg 49.8¢ | $95.07 | $92.63 | -$2.44 | 40% 1349-2039 (3388) |
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100 | Overavg 49.2¢ | $21.22 | $21.57 | +$0.35 | 51% 3584-3513 (7097) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $8.96 | $8.61 | -$0.35 | 58% 19471-14317 (33788) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | -$0.03 | 52% 8584-7828 (16412) |
Invested
$1,042.46
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$18.58
Record
54%
18039-15167 (33206)
Both legs:
Invested
$452.2
Value
$456.69
PnL
+$4.49
Record
46%
72-83 (155)
Invested
$95.07
Value
$92.63
PnL
-$2.44
Record
40%
1349-2039 (3388)
Invested
$21.22
Value
$21.57
PnL
+$0.35
Record
51%
3584-3513 (7097)
Invested
$8.96
Value
$8.61
PnL
-$0.35
Record
58%
19471-14317 (33788)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
8584-7828 (16412)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.