Spread: Jazz (-1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (50%) · Heat at 94¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Jazz7¢Heat93¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$88.47

Smart Money Entry

77¢ → 93.5¢

+21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jazz7%

Heat94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat4 traders

Total Value$941.86

Total Shares1,053

Combined PnL+$123.09

Jazz4 traders

Total Value$157.56

Total Shares708

Combined PnL-$34.61

Heat — 50%Jazz — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Heatavg 75.7¢	$569.4	$685.91	+$123.23	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Heatavg 80¢	$245.47	$245.22	-$0.24	56% 502-393 (895)
RN1ARB<$100	Jazzavg 20¢	$119.08	$110.93	-$8.15	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 85¢	$58.08	$56.03	-$2.05
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 20¢	$61	$54.9	-$6.1
nigiri99ARB<$100	Jazzavg 23¢	$91.82	$87.4	-$4.42	—
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 23¢	$56.3	$49	-$7.3
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 74¢	$35.52	$38.4	+$2.88
38 38791873984189CTR	Jazzavg 24¢	$100	$86	-$14	48% 959-1032 (1991)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 26¢	$86.22	$66.32	-$19.9	28% 298-765 (1063)
TA takeormake<$100	Heatavg 84¢	$6.72	$6.72	+$0	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
SE sentrio<$100	Heatavg 78¢	$3.9	$4	+$0.1	35% 266-489 (755)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jazzavg 24¢	$3.65	$3.04	-$0.61	49% 446-472 (918)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 21¢	$2.31	$2.2	-$0.11	29% 307-748 (1055)

Flaznorp

Heat

Invested

$569.4

Value

$685.91

PnL

+$123.23

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Heat

Invested

$245.47

Value

$245.22

PnL

-$0.24

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

RN1ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$119.08

Value

$110.93

PnL

-$8.15

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Both legs:

Invested

$91.82

Value

$87.4

PnL

-$4.42

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$100

Value

$86

PnL

-$14

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$86.22

Value

$66.32

PnL

-$19.9

Record

28%

298-765 (1063)

takeormake<$100

Heat

Invested

$6.72

Value

$6.72

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

sentrio<$100

Heat

Invested

$3.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

35%

266-489 (755)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.04

PnL

-$0.61

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.11

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJazz 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedJazz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jazz 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.