Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 74¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 20%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$45.58

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$621.95

Total Shares1,111

Combined PnL+$45.36

Over4 traders

Total Value$241.54

Total Shares785

Combined PnL-$90.94

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 51.9¢	$576.6	$621.95	+$45.36	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 36.5¢	$564.21	$543.91	-$20.3	56% 488-383 (871)
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.5¢	$466.97	$390.31	-$76.65
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$97.24	$153.6	+$56.36
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 42.9¢	$307.28	$218.69	-$88.6	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 65¢	$133.36	$150.38	+$17.02	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65¢	$102.19	$117.91	+$15.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 24¢	$31.17	$32.47	+$1.3
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$10	$10.6	+$0.6	54% 217-188 (405)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$7.96	$6.99	-$0.96	54% 383-322 (705)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$7.24	$5.26	-$1.98	54% 1657-1434 (3091)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$576.6

Value

$621.95

PnL

+$45.36

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$564.21

Value

$543.91

PnL

-$20.3

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Both legs:

Over$466.9736.5¢-$76.65

Under$97.2444¢+$56.36

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$307.28

Value

$218.69

PnL

-$88.6

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$133.36

Value

$150.38

PnL

+$17.02

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

Both legs:

Under$102.1965¢+$15.72

Over$31.1724¢+$1.3

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.96

Value

$6.99

PnL

-$0.96

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.24

Value

$5.26

PnL

-$1.98

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

1 of 5 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.