Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 78¢ · $68K held · ended Nov 11

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$68.4K

Combined PnL

$-12.3K

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 78¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$57.5K

Total Shares79,643

Combined PnL$-5.9K

Over3 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares67,068

Combined PnL$-6.3K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MD MD14	Underavg 80¢	$62.8K	$56.5K	$-6.3K	—
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Overavg 20¢	$13.4K	$7.0K	$-6.3K	51% 3680-3510 (7190)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 68.4¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$11.77	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
└ Under leg	Underavg 68.4¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$34.89
└ Over leg	Overavg 30.7¢	$798.06	$844.73	+$46.67
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 59.6¢	$683.73	$998.09	+$314.36	56% 488-383 (871)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 52¢	$207.04	$232.2	+$25.16	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 49.9¢	$32.25	$33.04	+$17.44	54% 383-322 (705)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$13.96	$7.48	-$6.48	58% 3802-2784 (6586)

MD14

Under

Invested

$62,764.12

Value

$56.5K

PnL

$-6.3K

Record

—

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Over

Invested

$13,361.93

Value

$7.0K

PnL

$-6.3K

Record

51%

3680-3510 (7190)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,571.37

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$11.77

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Both legs:

Under$2,773.3168.4¢-$34.89

Over$798.0630.7¢+$46.67

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$683.73

Value

$998.09

PnL

+$314.36

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$207.04

Value

$232.2

PnL

+$25.16

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$32.25

Value

$33.04

PnL

+$17.44

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.96

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$6.48

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (5 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.