Spread: Thunder (-13.5)

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (70%) · Trail Blazers at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder<1¢Trail Blazers>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 70%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$111.01

Smart Money Entry

91.9¢ → 99.6¢

+8% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder0%

Trail Blazers100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers7 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,335

Combined PnL+$150.62

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$92.79

Total Shares1,143

Combined PnL-$39.61

Trail Blazers — 70%Thunder — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 91¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$220.26	56% 563-451 (1014)
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 95.8¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$162.95	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 89.8¢	$844.13	$910.23	+$72.4	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 89.8¢	$277.97	$259.31	-$4.66	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
PA Pan9X	Trail Blazersavg 93¢	$131.67	$127.08	+$9.39	48% 512-544 (1056)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Trail Blazersavg 87.8¢	$77.26	$87.65	+$10.39	62% 2398-1492 (3890)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 12.1¢	$86.42	$78.32	-$8.1	59% 3145-2227 (5372)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Trail Blazersavg 88¢	$44	$49.8	+$5.8	63% 193-112 (305)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Thunderavg 9¢	$9	$11	+$2	53% 5580-4967 (10547)
RN1CTR<$100	Thunderavg 11.2¢	$36.98	$3.47	-$33.51	57% 3877-2879 (6756)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,305.26

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$220.26

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,523.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$162.95

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$844.13

Value

$910.23

PnL

+$72.4

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$277.97

Value

$259.31

PnL

-$4.66

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

Pan9X

Trail Blazers

Invested

$131.67

Value

$127.08

PnL

+$9.39

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$77.26

Value

$87.65

PnL

+$10.39

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$86.42

Value

$78.32

PnL

-$8.1

Record

59%

3145-2227 (5372)

suitcase6628<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$44

Value

$49.8

PnL

+$5.8

Record

63%

193-112 (305)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

Value

$11

PnL

+$2

Record

53%

5580-4967 (10547)

RN1CTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$36.98

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$33.51

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.