Spread: Thunder (-2.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (57%) · Trail Blazers at 55¢ · $62K held · ends Nov 11

Thunder46¢Trail Blazers54¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 57%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$62.5K

Combined PnL

$308.45

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 54.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder46%

Trail Blazers55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers4 traders

Total Value$43.6K

Total Shares79,952

Combined PnL+$481.77

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares34,822

Combined PnL-$173.32

Trail Blazers — 57%Thunder — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Trail Blazersavg 54¢	$41.0K	$41.4K	+$379.8	42% 574-809 (1383)
PU purplegattoCTR	Thunderavg 46¢	$15.5K	$15.3K	-$168.55	69% 2573-1166 (3739)
HO HomeRunHazard	Trail Blazersavg 50.9¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$92.54	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Thunderavg 46.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$17.02	60% 3445-2339 (5784)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 46.3¢	$759.27	$746.29	-$12.98
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 51.5¢	$514.99	$544.99	+$30
GC GC-PARB<$100	Thunderavg 46.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.15	16% 68-351 (419)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 46.5¢	$662.73	$647.85	-$14.88
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 52¢	$562.3	$589.34	+$27.03
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 51¢	$688.09	$544.12	+$10.53	48% 959-1032 (1991)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 51¢	$272.95	$288.85	+$18.32
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 47.4¢	$263.06	$255.27	-$7.79
MA MadridTimeCTR	Thunderavg 46¢	$506.57	$501.06	-$5.51	29% 307-748 (1055)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Trail Blazersavg 53¢	$331.42	$337.67	+$6.25	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Trail Blazersavg 53.2¢	$212.71	$215.89	+$3.18	10% 89-786 (875)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 46¢	$24.3	$7.76	+$0.74	49% 446-472 (918)

BreakTheBank

Trail Blazers

Invested

$41,017.99

Value

$41.4K

PnL

+$379.8

Record

42%

574-809 (1383)

purplegattoCTR

Thunder

Invested

$15,506.6

Value

$15.3K

PnL

-$168.55

Record

69%

2573-1166 (3739)

HomeRunHazard

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,509.76

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$92.54

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

NM-PARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1,274.26

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$17.02

Record

60%

3445-2339 (5784)

Both legs:

Thunder$759.2746.3¢-$12.98

Trail Blazers$514.9951.5¢+$30

GC-PARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$1,225.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.15

Record

16%

68-351 (419)

Both legs:

Thunder$662.7346.5¢-$14.88

Trail Blazers$562.352¢+$27.03

38791873984189ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$688.09

Value

$544.12

PnL

+$10.53

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$272.9551¢+$18.32

Thunder$263.0647.4¢-$7.79

MadridTimeCTR

Thunder

Invested

$506.57

Value

$501.06

PnL

-$5.51

Record

29%

307-748 (1055)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Trail Blazers

Invested

$331.42

Value

$337.67

PnL

+$6.25

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Trail Blazers

Invested

$212.71

Value

$215.89

PnL

+$3.18

Record

10%

89-786 (875)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$24.3

Value

$7.76

PnL

+$0.74

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTrail Blazers 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.