Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (78%) · Trail Blazers at 65¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder35¢Trail Blazers65¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$18.9

Smart Money Entry

68.2¢ → 65¢

-5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder35%

Trail Blazers65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,359

Combined PnL+$8.85

Thunder2 traders

Total Value$650.26

Total Shares2,016

Combined PnL+$10.05

Trail Blazers — 78%Thunder — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 64.6¢	$977.38	$933.83	+$55.8	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 71.7¢	$972.98	$895.69	-$77.29	55% 541-436 (977)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Thunderavg 31.5¢	$568.39	$577.47	+$9.08	53% 228-199 (427)
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 69.1¢	$343.52	$368.25	+$24.72	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 64¢	$69.21	$79.42	+$10.21	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 64¢	$45.98	$53.16	+$7.18
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 23¢	$23.23	$26.26	+$3.03
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Thunderavg 34¢	$71.82	$72.79	+$0.97	58% 3133-2226 (5359)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Trail Blazersavg 65¢	$57.85	$58.3	+$0.45	62% 2389-1477 (3866)
PA Pan9X<$100	Trail Blazersavg 69.4¢	$49.7	$53.62	+$3.92	49% 498-518 (1016)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Trail Blazersavg 64¢	$40.14	$41.4	+$1.25	48% 231-247 (478)
RN1<$100	Trail Blazersavg 66¢	$6.6	$6.6	+$0	58% 3865-2855 (6720)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$977.38

Value

$933.83

PnL

+$55.8

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$972.98

Value

$895.69

PnL

-$77.29

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Thunder

Invested

$568.39

Value

$577.47

PnL

+$9.08

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$343.52

Value

$368.25

PnL

+$24.72

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$69.21

Value

$79.42

PnL

+$10.21

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$45.9864¢+$7.18

Thunder$23.2323¢+$3.03

takeormakeCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$71.82

Value

$72.79

PnL

+$0.97

Record

58%

3133-2226 (5359)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$57.85

Value

$58.3

PnL

+$0.45

Record

62%

2389-1477 (3866)

Pan9X<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$49.7

Value

$53.62

PnL

+$3.92

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

SnakeBall<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$40.14

Value

$41.4

PnL

+$1.25

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

RN1<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.6

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedTrail Blazers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.