Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (60%) · Trail Blazers at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 11

Thunder<1¢Trail Blazers>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$20.35

Smart Money Entry

70.4¢ → 99.5¢

+41% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder1%

Trail Blazers100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers6 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares8,249

Combined PnL+$326.47

Thunder4 traders

Total Value$309.34

Total Shares2,092

Combined PnL-$306.12

Trail Blazers — 60%Thunder — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-40 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Trail Blazersavg 69.8¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$333.02	56% 563-451 (1014)
FL Flaznorp	Trail Blazersavg 67.2¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$359.88	50% 1640-1620 (3260)
65 6512395314597884	Trail Blazersavg 72.7¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$283.41	51% 3200-3120 (6320)
38 38791873984189	Trail Blazersavg 68.1¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	+$58.91	48% 1056-1134 (2190)
RN1ARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 78¢	$465.95	$481.12	+$15.16	57% 3877-2879 (6756)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 26.3¢	$216.35	$263.52	+$47.16
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 78¢	$249.6	$217.6	-$32
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Trail Blazersavg 95¢	$172.9	$181.18	+$8.28	62% 2398-1492 (3890)
TA takeormakeCTR	Thunderavg 30¢	$146.2	$154.84	+$8.64	59% 3145-2227 (5372)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Thunderavg 30.1¢	$389.7	$103.48	-$286.22	53% 234-204 (438)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Trail Blazersavg 95¢	$57	$59.73	+$2.73	63% 193-112 (305)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Thunderavg 25¢	$75.86	$50.12	+$18.56	48% 512-544 (1056)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Thunderavg 24¢	$48	$0.9	-$47.1	53% 5580-4967 (10547)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Trail Blazers

Invested

$3,050.96

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$333.02

Record

56%

563-451 (1014)

Flaznorp

Trail Blazers

Invested

$2,224.38

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$359.88

Record

50%

1640-1620 (3260)

6512395314597884

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,422.73

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$283.41

Record

51%

3200-3120 (6320)

38791873984189

Trail Blazers

Invested

$1,176.11

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$58.91

Record

48%

1056-1134 (2190)

RN1ARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$465.95

Value

$481.12

PnL

+$15.16

Record

57%

3877-2879 (6756)

Both legs:

Thunder$216.3526.3¢+$47.16

Trail Blazers$249.678¢-$32

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Trail Blazers

Invested

$172.9

Value

$181.18

PnL

+$8.28

Record

62%

2398-1492 (3890)

takeormakeCTR

Thunder

Invested

$146.2

Value

$154.84

PnL

+$8.64

Record

59%

3145-2227 (5372)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Thunder

Invested

$389.7

Value

$103.48

PnL

-$286.22

Record

53%

234-204 (438)

suitcase6628<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$57

Value

$59.73

PnL

+$2.73

Record

63%

193-112 (305)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$75.86

Value

$50.12

PnL

+$18.56

Record

48%

512-544 (1056)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$48

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$47.1

Record

53%

5580-4967 (10547)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-40 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrThunder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.