Spread: Magic (-1.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (63%) · Magic at 69¢ · $932 held · ended Nov 11

Magic69¢Kings31¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$931.87

Combined PnL

-$147.06

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 69¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic69%

Kings31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic5 traders

Total Value$566.29

Total Shares760

Combined PnL-$30.15

Kings3 traders

Total Value$201.29

Total Shares863

Combined PnL-$116.91

Magic — 63%Kings — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMagic 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedMagic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Magic 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Magicavg 66.6¢	$344.46	$263.83	-$8.2	48% 969-1052 (2021)
RN1	Magicavg 78.7¢	$287.1	$246.38	-$40.72	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Kingsavg 21.9¢	$141.93	$164.28	+$22.35	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 62.3¢	$69.87	$85.24	+$15.37
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 21.9¢	$72.06	$79.04	+$6.98
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Kingsavg 36¢	$236.16	$137.76	-$98.4	42% 574-809 (1383)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Kingsavg 39.3¢	$44.04	$36.45	-$7.59	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
PA Pan9X<$100	Magicavg 62.2¢	$55.87	$31.08	+$14.22	49% 450-474 (924)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Kingsavg 40¢	$38	$27.08	-$10.93	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
TA takeormake<$100	Magicavg 59¢	$14.75	$17.75	+$3	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Magicavg 62¢	$5.7	$7.26	+$1.56	49% 220-229 (449)

38791873984189

Magic

Invested

$344.46

Value

$263.83

PnL

-$8.2

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

RN1

Magic

Invested

$287.1

Value

$246.38

PnL

-$40.72

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$141.93

Value

$164.28

PnL

+$22.35

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Magic$69.8762.3¢+$15.37

Kings$72.0621.9¢+$6.98

BreakTheBankCTR

Kings

Invested

$236.16

Value

$137.76

PnL

-$98.4

Record

42%

574-809 (1383)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$44.04

Value

$36.45

PnL

-$7.59

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Pan9X<$100

Magic

Invested

$55.87

Value

$31.08

PnL

+$14.22

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$38

Value

$27.08

PnL

-$10.93

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

takeormake<$100

Magic

Invested

$14.75

Value

$17.75

PnL

+$3

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

SnakeBall<$100

Magic

Invested

$5.7

Value

$7.26

PnL

+$1.56

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMagic 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedMagic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Magic 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.