Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 49¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$5.5K
-$8.65
48.9¢ → 48.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$72.72 | 54% 18039-15168 (33207) |
TM TMingchan | Overavg 52¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$98.8 | 60% 15-10 (25) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Overavg 52.5¢ | $546.17 | $544.41 | -$1.75 | 40% 1349-2039 (3388) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 52.5¢ | $367.49 | $360.49 | -$7 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47.1¢ | $178.67 | $183.92 | +$5.25 | |
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR | Underavg 48.2¢ | $420.22 | $439.86 | +$19.64 | 46% 72-83 (155) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 52¢ | $290.69 | $124.7 | -$2.94 | 58% 45483-32930 (78413) |
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $24.13 | $24.87 | +$0.74 | 51% 3584-3513 (7097) |
Invested
$2,375.38
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$72.72
Record
54%
18039-15168 (33207)
Invested
$2,055.01
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$98.8
Record
60%
15-10 (25)
Invested
$546.17
Value
$544.41
PnL
-$1.75
Record
40%
1349-2039 (3388)
Both legs:
Invested
$420.22
Value
$439.86
PnL
+$19.64
Record
46%
72-83 (155)
VeryLucky888Invested
$290.69
Value
$124.7
PnL
-$2.94
Record
58%
45483-32930 (78413)
Invested
$24.13
Value
$24.87
PnL
+$0.74
Record
51%
3584-3513 (7097)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.