Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Lakers (70%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Lakers (-10.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (40%) · Raptors at 30¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
5
Raptors 40%
1 arb excluded
$6.3K
$101.16
42.9¢ → 30¢
-30% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Lakersavg 50.9¢ | $4.0K | $4.0K | -$19.36 | 48% 1127-1228 (2355) |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 50.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$2.64 | |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 49.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$22 | |
HA hazardenenCTR | Raptorsavg 50¢ | $900 | $909 | +$9 | 63% 276-165 (441) |
JU justaluckydude | Lakersavg 54¢ | $581.84 | $636.16 | +$54.32 | 53% 11153-9754 (20907) |
UP UpTheBlues | Lakersavg 47.3¢ | $339.58 | $368.45 | +$28.87 | 58% 47728-33904 (81632) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Raptorsavg 30.2¢ | $305.13 | $314.69 | +$9.56 | 53% 4359-3820 (8179) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Lakersavg 55¢ | $5.83 | $5.25 | -$0.58 | 53% 6253-5611 (11864) |
Invested
$4,044.26
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$19.36
Record
48%
1127-1228 (2355)
Both legs:
Invested
$900
Value
$909
PnL
+$9
Record
63%
276-165 (441)
Invested
$581.84
Value
$636.16
PnL
+$54.32
Record
53%
11153-9754 (20907)
Invested
$339.58
Value
$368.45
PnL
+$28.87
Record
58%
47728-33904 (81632)
Invested
$305.13
Value
$314.69
PnL
+$9.56
Record
53%
4359-3820 (8179)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$5.83
Value
$5.25
PnL
-$0.58
Record
53%
6253-5611 (11864)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.