Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lakers, while the market favors Raptors (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Lakers (-4.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Lakers (60%) · Lakers at 44¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Lakers
5
Lakers 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$48.36
49.5¢ → 43.5¢
-12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidLakers at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Lakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Lakersavg 49.4¢ | $617.5 | $612.5 | -$5 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Raptorsavg 51¢ | $499.8 | $529.2 | +$53.9 | 73% 3600-1329 (4929) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Raptorsavg 52.8¢ | $287.59 | $291.41 | +$3.83 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 52.8¢ | $198.97 | $212.75 | +$13.77 | |
| └ Lakers leg | Lakersavg 49¢ | $88.61 | $78.67 | -$9.95 | |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Lakersavg 50¢ | $144.5 | $141.61 | -$1.44 | 50% 7125-7171 (14296) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Lakersavg 50¢ | $22 | $21.56 | -$0.22 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Raptorsavg 51¢ | $10.41 | $11.53 | +$1.12 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$617.5
Value
$612.5
PnL
-$5
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$499.8
Value
$529.2
PnL
+$53.9
Record
73%
3600-1329 (4929)
Invested
$287.59
Value
$291.41
PnL
+$3.83
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Both legs:
Invested
$144.5
Value
$141.61
PnL
-$1.44
Record
50%
7125-7171 (14296)
Invested
$22
Value
$21.56
PnL
-$0.22
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$10.41
Value
$11.53
PnL
+$1.12
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.