Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$103.53

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 51.5¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,377

Combined PnL+$103.71

Over1 trader

Total Value$2.45

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.18

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 49.1¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$96.8	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
HE Herdonia<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$59.42	$62.95	+$3.54	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 47.8¢	$43.55	$46.92	+$3.37	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 51¢	$30.04	$30.04	+$0	50% 24945-24626 (49571)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 51¢	$28.16	$28.16	+$0	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.45	-$0.18	52% 7503-6793 (14296)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,009.58

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$96.8

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Herdonia<$100

Under

Invested

$59.42

Value

$62.95

PnL

+$3.54

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$43.55

Value

$46.92

PnL

+$3.37

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$30.04

Value

$30.04

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

24945-24626 (49571)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$28.16

Value

$28.16

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.