Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Raptors (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: 76ers (-11.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (67%) · 76ers at 45¢ · $750 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
76ers
6
76ers 67%
$749.64
-$2.7
43.5¢ → 44.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Avoid76ers at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | 76ersavg 45.4¢ | $315.24 | $271.1 | -$4.2 | 57% 3276-2473 (5749) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | 76ersavg 41¢ | $167.28 | $204 | +$36.72 | 31% 441-967 (1408) |
4D 0x4dd2...14c2 | Raptorsavg 59¢ | $237.77 | $201.5 | -$36.27 | 39% 13-20 (33) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 45¢ | $39.94 | $40.38 | +$0.44 | 47% 350-393 (743) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Raptorsavg 55.8¢ | $23.65 | $22.66 | -$0.99 | 55% 218-176 (394) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 42¢ | $8.4 | $10 | +$1.6 | 31% 444-971 (1415) |
Invested
$315.24
Value
$271.1
PnL
-$4.2
Record
57%
3276-2473 (5749)
Invested
$167.28
Value
$204
PnL
+$36.72
Record
31%
441-967 (1408)
Invested
$237.77
Value
$201.5
PnL
-$36.27
Record
39%
13-20 (33)
Invested
$39.94
Value
$40.38
PnL
+$0.44
Record
47%
350-393 (743)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$23.65
Value
$22.66
PnL
-$0.99
Record
55%
218-176 (394)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.6
Record
31%
444-971 (1415)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.