Vitesse Arnhem vs. De Graafschap: O/U 1.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 51¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$1.7K
-$663.62
82.7¢ → 51¢
-38% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 85¢ | $2.1K | $1.2K | -$822.5 | 50% 32582-32710 (65292) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 14.9¢ | $55.38 | $182.59 | +$129.49 | 52% 47368-44608 (91976) |
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR | Underavg 42¢ | $139.86 | $163.17 | +$23.31 | 64% 1253-708 (1961) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Overavg 56.7¢ | $87.93 | $79.05 | -$8.88 | 48% 39776-42707 (82483) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $40.59 | $35.69 | -$4.9 | 50% 23496-23498 (46994) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 14.3¢ | $8.17 | $28.02 | +$19.86 | 50% 27970-27422 (55392) |
Invested
$2,056.25
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$822.5
Record
50%
32582-32710 (65292)
Invested
$55.38
Value
$182.59
PnL
+$129.49
Record
52%
47368-44608 (91976)
Invested
$139.86
Value
$163.17
PnL
+$23.31
Record
64%
1253-708 (1961)
Invested
$87.93
Value
$79.05
PnL
-$8.88
Record
48%
39776-42707 (82483)
Invested
$40.59
Value
$35.69
PnL
-$4.9
Record
50%
23496-23498 (46994)
Invested
$8.17
Value
$28.02
PnL
+$19.86
Record
50%
27970-27422 (55392)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.