Browns vs. Saints: O/U 40.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 94¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$1.95

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 93.5¢

+91% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares5,945

Combined PnL+$709.36

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares5,544

Combined PnL-$711.31

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 49.2¢	$5.3K	$3.3K	+$676.73	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
RN1CTR	Overavg 51¢	$5.0K	$1.9K	-$644.92	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 43¢	$225.52	$223.76	-$1.75	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
BI biying88888	Underavg 50¢	$125	$155	+$30	48% 233-252 (485)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 48¢	$254.88	$96.86	-$25.49	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
DR DreamwireCTR	Overavg 50¢	$125	$95	-$30	80% 4364-1079 (5443)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 55.1¢	$24.63	$27.7	+$3.07	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$70.38	$26.39	-$10.91	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 52¢	$11	$7.04	+$1.32	53% 13661-12046 (25707)

primm

Under

Invested

$5,287

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$676.73

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$4,969

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$644.92

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$225.52

Value

$223.76

PnL

-$1.75

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$125

Value

$155

PnL

+$30

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$254.88

Value

$96.86

PnL

-$25.49

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

DreamwireCTR

Over

Invested

$125

Value

$95

PnL

-$30

Record

80%

4364-1079 (5443)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$24.63

Value

$27.7

PnL

+$3.07

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.38

Value

$26.39

PnL

-$10.91

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$11

Value

$7.04

PnL

+$1.32

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.