Spread: Cowboys (-13.5)

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (83%) · Colts at 90¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys11¢Colts89¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 83%

Total Value

$18.1K

Combined PnL

$70.56

Smart Money Entry

63.3¢ → 89.5¢

+41% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys11%

Colts90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts10 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares18,056

Combined PnL+$4.1K

Cowboys2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares18,880

Combined PnL$-4.1K

Colts — 83%Cowboys — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cowboys) and the top 1000 (7 on Colts) disagree here.

whaleCowboys 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrColts 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Colts 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Coltsavg 75¢	$3.9K	$4.2K	+$338.66	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
AN Anon455	Coltsavg 58.4¢	$2.4K	$3.8K	+$1.3K	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
alpheclabs2	Coltsavg 55.7¢	$2.2K	$3.5K	+$1.3K	47% 1624-1831 (3455)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Coltsavg 59¢	$1.6K	$2.4K	+$793.55	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
RN1CTR	Cowboysavg 40.5¢	$5.5K	$1.5K	$-4.1K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
38 38791873984189	Coltsavg 68.3¢	$826.06	$1.1K	+$236.17	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
TA takeormakeCTR	Cowboysavg 25¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$1.68	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Coltsavg 50¢	$252.5	$326	+$73.5	56% 195-151 (346)
65 6512395314597884	Coltsavg 72.3¢	$148.25	$181.43	+$33.18	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
PA Pan9X	Coltsavg 59.5¢	$113.25	$172.27	+$59.02	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Coltsavg 72¢	$9.36	$10.6	+$1.24	48% 8324-8883 (17207)
GH ghorrock<$100	Coltsavg 55¢	$3.57	$5.74	+$2.17	57% 24661-18268 (42929)

nigiri99

Colts

Invested

$3,907.49

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$338.66

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

Anon455

Colts

Invested

$2,446.76

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

alpheclabs2

Colts

Invested

$2,195.69

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

47%

1624-1831 (3455)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Colts

Invested

$1,587.1

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$793.55

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

RN1CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$5,526.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

38791873984189

Colts

Invested

$826.06

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$236.17

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

takeormakeCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$1,036.18

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$1.68

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Colts

Invested

$252.5

Value

$326

PnL

+$73.5

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

6512395314597884

Colts

Invested

$148.25

Value

$181.43

PnL

+$33.18

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Pan9X

Colts

Invested

$113.25

Value

$172.27

PnL

+$59.02

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Oddstorm<$100

Colts

Invested

$9.36

Value

$10.6

PnL

+$1.24

Record

48%

8324-8883 (17207)

ghorrock<$100

Colts

Invested

$3.57

Value

$5.74

PnL

+$2.17

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Cowboys) and the top 1000 (7 on Colts) disagree here.

whaleCowboys 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrColts 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Colts 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.