Spread: Jaguars (-20.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (83%) · Colts at 79¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Colts
6
Colts 83%
$24.2K
-$182.78
79.2¢ → 78.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralColts at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Mature
40h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Coltsavg 79.2¢ | $12.4K | $11.8K | -$92.45 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Coltsavg 79.2¢ | $11.4K | $11.3K | -$96.48 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Coltsavg 80¢ | $800 | $790 | -$5 | 53% 5696-5031 (10727) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Coltsavg 79¢ | $158 | $158 | +$1 | 54% 4943-4171 (9114) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Jaguarsavg 19¢ | $84.56 | $95.69 | +$11.13 | 53% 11582-10087 (21669) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Coltsavg 79.3¢ | $91.24 | $90.28 | -$0.96 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$12,375.65
Value
$11.8K
PnL
-$92.45
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$11,375.18
Value
$11.3K
PnL
-$96.48
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$800
Value
$790
PnL
-$5
Record
53%
5696-5031 (10727)
Invested
$158
Value
$158
PnL
+$1
Record
54%
4943-4171 (9114)
Invested
$84.56
Value
$95.69
PnL
+$11.13
Record
53%
11582-10087 (21669)
Invested
$91.24
Value
$90.28
PnL
-$0.96
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.