Consensus PnL -$248K · win rate 54% (4395–3731, n=8126) · was PM monthly #891 · holds 36 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-248.4K
Record
4395W / 3731L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 8126 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1480
Source
PM monthly #891
Trades
145
Markets
9,191
Volume
$13.6M
Top consensus positions
36 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 36 on the consensus side (47%)- Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-11-01?No $5.9K · now 87¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5Under $2.9K · now 80¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Over)
- Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 3.5Under $2.8K · now 91¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Over)
- RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5Over $1.9K · now 50¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (64% of 16)
- Getafe CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5Under $1.1K · now 1¢ · in at 64¢against the consensus (Over)
- SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Under $973 · now 16¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will Ascoli Calcio 1898 FC win on 2026-11-01?No $972 · now 65¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?No $646 · now 43¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (61% of 43)
Specialties
3,958 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 61¢- MLB
+47 pts
side won 99% of 291 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +43%
- Other Sports
+44 pts
side won 97% of 117 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +40%
- College Football
+42 pts
side won 93% of 235 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +31%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 93% of 136)
- 30–50¢: 28%(won 95% of 1112)
- 50–70¢: 36%(won 98% of 1429)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 100% of 1281)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.