Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Colts, while the market favors Jaguars (56%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Jaguars (-8.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (50%) · Colts at 45¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Colts
6
Colts 50%
$13.7K
$771.06
44¢ → 44.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralColts at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Jaguars 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
114h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Coltsavg 44¢ | $5.9K | $5.9K | +$66.75 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
 unknowngambler | Jaguarsavg 49¢ | $4.9K | $5.6K | +$550 | 58% 401-293 (694) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Coltsavg 44¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | +$60.85 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
BA Bagwell306 | Jaguarsavg 49¢ | $489.51 | $554.45 | +$64.94 | 58% 4067-2890 (6957) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Jaguarsavg 49¢ | $247.5 | $280.33 | +$27.78 | 53% 453-396 (849) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Coltsavg 44¢ | $22 | $23 | +$0.75 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
Invested
$5,874
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$66.75
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
unknowngamblerInvested
$4,900
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$550
Record
58%
401-293 (694)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,387.87
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$60.85
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$489.51
Value
$554.45
PnL
+$64.94
Record
58%
4067-2890 (6957)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$247.5
Value
$280.33
PnL
+$27.78
Record
53%
453-396 (849)
Invested
$22
Value
$23
PnL
+$0.75
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.