Spread: Jets (-9.5)

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Raiders (83%) · Raiders at 79¢ · $49K held · ends Nov 1

Jets22¢Raiders78¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Raiders

Consensus Traders

Raiders 83%

Total Value

$48.9K

Combined PnL

-$443.2

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 78.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jets22%

Raiders79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raiders5 traders

Total Value$48.7K

Total Shares61,987

Combined PnL-$448.01

Jets1 trader

Total Value$206.83

Total Shares962

Combined PnL+$4.81

Raiders — 83%Jets — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaiders 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raiders 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Raidersavg 79.7¢	$30.1K	$29.7K	-$437.56	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
VeryLucky888	Raidersavg 79¢	$10.3K	$10.3K	-$64.49	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Raidersavg 79¢	$7.9K	$7.9K	+$50	47% 2574-2862 (5436)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Raidersavg 79¢	$790	$790	+$5	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Jetsavg 21¢	$202.02	$206.83	+$4.81	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Raidersavg 79.3¢	$91.24	$90.28	-$0.96	57% 29237-21620 (50857)

HomeRunHazard

Raiders

Invested

$30,115.02

Value

$29.7K

PnL

-$437.56

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

VeryLucky888

Raiders

Invested

$10,326.23

Value

$10.3K

PnL

-$64.49

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Raiders

Invested

$7,900

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$50

Record

47%

2574-2862 (5436)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Raiders

Invested

$790

Value

$790

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

Forecastication2CTR

Jets

Invested

$202.02

Value

$206.83

PnL

+$4.81

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Raiders

Invested

$91.24

Value

$90.28

PnL

-$0.96

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Research grade

NeutralRaiders at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raiders

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Raiders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrRaiders 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedRaiders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Raiders 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.