Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (67%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 56.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 34¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
$-1.4K
62.3¢ → 33.5¢
-46% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $978.94 | $938.24 | -$40.7 | 55% 3014-2443 (5457) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 62¢ | $681.38 | $664.9 | -$16.49 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 43¢ | $297.56 | $273.34 | -$24.22 | |
PR primmCTR | Underavg 64¢ | $1.5K | $827.64 | -$643.72 | 46% 1131-1309 (2440) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 62¢ | $751.24 | $271.24 | -$480 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 21¢ | $176.61 | $164 | -$12.62 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Underavg 57¢ | $394.44 | $155.7 | -$238.74 | 53% 11037-9631 (20668) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 21¢ | $49.77 | $46.22 | -$3.55 | 50% 7127-7172 (14299) |
Invested
$978.94
Value
$938.24
PnL
-$40.7
Record
55%
3014-2443 (5457)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,471.36
Value
$827.64
PnL
-$643.72
Record
46%
1131-1309 (2440)
RN1CTRInvested
$751.24
Value
$271.24
PnL
-$480
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$176.61
Value
$164
PnL
-$12.62
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$394.44
Value
$155.7
PnL
-$238.74
Record
53%
11037-9631 (20668)
Invested
$49.77
Value
$46.22
PnL
-$3.55
Record
50%
7127-7172 (14299)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.