Spread: Commanders (-17.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Eagles (100%) · Eagles at 83¢ · $72K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Eagles
6
Eagles 100%
$71.8K
-$376.2
83.4¢ → 82.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralEagles at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- $50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Eagles. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Eaglesavg 83.4¢ | $33.5K | $33.2K | -$343.75 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Eaglesavg 83.5¢ | $25.1K | $24.9K | +$0 | 47% 2574-2862 (5436) |
 VeryLucky888 | Eaglesavg 83.2¢ | $12.1K | $12.1K | -$22.88 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Eaglesavg 84¢ | $840 | $830 | -$5 | 53% 5696-5031 (10727) |
UP UpTheBlues | Eaglesavg 83¢ | $694.71 | $690.53 | -$4.19 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Eaglesavg 83.3¢ | $90.85 | $90.47 | -$0.38 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
Invested
$33,505.72
Value
$33.2K
PnL
-$343.75
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$25,050
Value
$24.9K
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
2574-2862 (5436)
VeryLucky888Invested
$12,121.19
Value
$12.1K
PnL
-$22.88
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$840
Value
$830
PnL
-$5
Record
53%
5696-5031 (10727)
Invested
$694.71
Value
$690.53
PnL
-$4.19
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$90.85
Value
$90.47
PnL
-$0.38
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.