Steelers vs. Bengals

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (75%) · Bengals at 64¢ · $365 held · ends Nov 16

Steelers37¢Bengals63¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bengals

Consensus Traders

Bengals 75%

Total Value

$365.18

Combined PnL

-$37.39

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 63.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Steelers37%

Bengals64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bengals6 traders

Total Value$291.51

Total Shares462

Combined PnL-$36.38

Steelers2 traders

Total Value$73.67

Total Shares205

Combined PnL-$1.01

Bengals — 75%Steelers — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Bengals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBengals 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Bengals 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roldy	Bengalsavg 63¢	$143.4	$143.4	+$0	— 4-5 (9)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Bengalsavg 63.1¢	$84.04	$83.9	-$0.14	61% 935-598 (1533)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Steelersavg 36¢	$52.56	$52.56	-$0	47% 350-393 (743)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Bengalsavg 64¢	$28.06	$27.63	-$0.44	23% 38-129 (167)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Steelersavg 42.8¢	$42.8	$21.11	-$1.01	48% 131-141 (272)
38 38791873984189	Bengalsavg 62.3¢	$231.23	$19.86	-$36	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bengalsavg 62¢	$12.4	$12.6	+$0.2	49% 786-829 (1615)
GH ghorrock<$100	Bengalsavg 63¢	$4.13	$4.13	+$0	55% 729-596 (1325)

roldy

Bengals

Invested

$143.4

Value

$143.4

PnL

+$0

Record

—

4-5 (9)

darkumbreon88<$100

Bengals

Invested

$84.04

Value

$83.9

PnL

-$0.14

Record

61%

935-598 (1533)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Steelers

Invested

$52.56

Value

$52.56

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

Oddstorm<$100

Bengals

Invested

$28.06

Value

$27.63

PnL

-$0.44

Record

23%

38-129 (167)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Steelers

Invested

$42.8

Value

$21.11

PnL

-$1.01

Record

48%

131-141 (272)

38791873984189

Bengals

Invested

$231.23

Value

$19.86

PnL

-$36

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

Pan9X<$100

Bengals

Invested

$12.4

Value

$12.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

786-829 (1615)

ghorrock<$100

Bengals

Invested

$4.13

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

729-596 (1325)

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Bengals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBengals 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Bengals 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bengals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.