Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Maple Leafs (100%) · Maple Leafs at 52¢ · $161 held · ended Nov 11

Avalanche49¢Maple Leafs51¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maple Leafs

Consensus Traders

Maple Leafs 100%

Total Value

$161.15

Combined PnL

-$97.23

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 51.5¢

-9% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaple Leafs at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Avalanche49%

Maple Leafs52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maple Leafs8 traders

Total Value$161.15

Total Shares448

Combined PnL-$97.23

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Maple Leafs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaple Leafs 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Maple Leafs 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA Pan9X<$100	Maple Leafsavg 58.9¢	$82.38	$58.16	-$13.77	49% 444-470 (914)
0xheavy888	Maple Leafsavg 60¢	$100.62	$40.25	-$60.37	55% 120-97 (217)
LR lryyy<$100	Maple Leafsavg 43¢	$23.85	$25.51	+$1.66	50% 182-181 (363)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Maple Leafsavg 51¢	$16.06	$16.22	+$0.16	47% 500-558 (1058)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Maple Leafsavg 58¢	$27.62	$13.81	-$13.81	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
38 38791873984189<$100	Maple Leafsavg 61¢	$11.47	$4.51	-$6.96	48% 949-1019 (1968)
GH ghorrock<$100	Maple Leafsavg 61¢	$3.78	$1.49	-$2.29	54% 383-322 (705)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Maple Leafsavg 61¢	$3.05	$1.2	-$1.85	26% 181-519 (700)

Pan9X<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$82.38

Value

$58.16

PnL

-$13.77

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

0xheavy888

Maple Leafs

Invested

$100.62

Value

$40.25

PnL

-$60.37

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

lryyy<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$23.85

Value

$25.51

PnL

+$1.66

Record

50%

182-181 (363)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$16.06

Value

$16.22

PnL

+$0.16

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

Flaznorp<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$27.62

Value

$13.81

PnL

-$13.81

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

38791873984189<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$11.47

Value

$4.51

PnL

-$6.96

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

ghorrock<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$3.78

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$2.29

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

ameisgoat11<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$3.05

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$1.85

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

Research grade

NeutralMaple Leafs at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Maple Leafs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaple Leafs 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Maple Leafs 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maple Leafs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.