Spread: Devils (-1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (57%) · Jets at 78¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Jets
7
Jets 57%
$20.7K
-$409.88
65¢ → 77.5¢
+19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralJets at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Jetsavg 65¢ | $12.9K | $17.6K | +$4.7K | 54% 1657-1434 (3091) |
TA taylorsversionCTR | Devilsavg 35¢ | $7.8K | $2.5K | $-5.3K | 53% 95-83 (178) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Jetsavg 65¢ | $268 | $366.95 | +$98.95 | 10% 88-785 (873) |
 0xheavy888 | Jetsavg 64.4¢ | $147.56 | $203.81 | +$56.25 | 55% 120-97 (217) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Jetsavg 63.2¢ | $33.42 | $40.97 | +$7.55 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Devilsavg 11.7¢ | $38.72 | $34.98 | +$21.91 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Devilsavg 11¢ | $5.5 | $11.25 | +$5.75 | 53% 5512-4919 (10431) |
Invested
$12,852.11
Value
$17.6K
PnL
+$4.7K
Record
54%
1657-1434 (3091)
Invested
$7,795.8
Value
$2.5K
PnL
$-5.3K
Record
53%
95-83 (178)
Invested
$268
Value
$366.95
PnL
+$98.95
Record
10%
88-785 (873)
0xheavy888Invested
$147.56
Value
$203.81
PnL
+$56.25
Record
55%
120-97 (217)
Invested
$33.42
Value
$40.97
PnL
+$7.55
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
Invested
$38.72
Value
$34.98
PnL
+$21.91
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$11.25
PnL
+$5.75
Record
53%
5512-4919 (10431)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.