Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Predators vs. Kings: O/U 3.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 39¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 71%
1 arb excluded
$4.5K
-$909
60.4¢ → 38.5¢
-36% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 62.6¢ | $4.0K | $3.1K | -$899.17 | 54% 1691-1468 (3159) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Overavg 53.8¢ | $434.91 | $857.52 | +$592.18 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 12.4¢ | $144.29 | $665.19 | +$640.27 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53.8¢ | $240.42 | $192.33 | -$48.09 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $223.5 | $179.35 | -$44.15 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $168.43 | $173.81 | +$5.38 | 58% 3865-2855 (6720) |
PA Pan9XCTR | Overavg 51.5¢ | $125.5 | $94.71 | +$5.89 | 49% 498-518 (1016) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Underavg 12¢ | $47.7 | $67.58 | +$19.88 | 13% 28-194 (222) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $51.7 | $53.35 | +$1.65 | 49% 200-208 (408) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 13.2¢ | $5.25 | $6.78 | +$1.52 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
Invested
$3,995.22
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$899.17
Record
54%
1691-1468 (3159)
Invested
$434.91
Value
$857.52
PnL
+$592.18
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
Both legs:
Invested
$223.5
Value
$179.35
PnL
-$44.15
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
RN1CTRInvested
$168.43
Value
$173.81
PnL
+$5.38
Record
58%
3865-2855 (6720)
Invested
$125.5
Value
$94.71
PnL
+$5.89
Record
49%
498-518 (1016)
Invested
$47.7
Value
$67.58
PnL
+$19.88
Record
13%
28-194 (222)
Invested
$51.7
Value
$53.35
PnL
+$1.65
Record
49%
200-208 (408)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$6.78
PnL
+$1.52
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.