Spread: Senators (-1.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Capitals (43%) · Capitals at 60¢ · $28K held · ended Nov 11

Senators41¢Capitals59¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Capitals

Consensus Traders

Capitals 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.3K

Combined PnL

$-7.1K

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 59.5¢

-15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCapitals at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Capitals

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Senators41%

Capitals60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Capitals3 traders

Total Value$26.4K

Total Shares44,691

Combined PnL$-4.8K

Senators4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares12,373

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Capitals — 43%Senators — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Capitals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCapitals 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Capitals 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Capitalsavg 69.9¢	$31.0K	$26.2K	$-4.8K	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
HI hi774cCTR	Senatorsavg 31¢	$3.7K	$1.5K	$-2.1K	8% 37-422 (459)
0xheavy888	Capitalsavg 69.7¢	$254.27	$255.46	+$1.2	55% 120-97 (217)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Senatorsavg 29.7¢	$403.28	$253.96	-$149.32	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Capitals leg	Capitalsavg 69¢	$134	$135.95	+$1.94
└ Senators leg	Senatorsavg 29.7¢	$269.27	$118.01	-$151.26
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Senatorsavg 29¢	$116	$52	-$64	10% 88-785 (873)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Senatorsavg 40¢	$12	$12	+$0	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
GH ghorrock<$100	Capitalsavg 67¢	$3.38	$3.53	+$0.15	54% 383-322 (705)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Senatorsavg 30.1¢	$8.13	$3.51	-$4.62	49% 444-470 (914)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Capitals

Invested

$30,994.52

Value

$26.2K

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

hi774cCTR

Senators

Invested

$3,693.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

37-422 (459)

0xheavy888

Capitals

Invested

$254.27

Value

$255.46

PnL

+$1.2

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Senators

Invested

$403.28

Value

$253.96

PnL

-$149.32

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Capitals$13469¢+$1.94

Senators$269.2729.7¢-$151.26

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Senators

Invested

$116

Value

$52

PnL

-$64

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Senators

Invested

$12

Value

$12

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

ghorrock<$100

Capitals

Invested

$3.38

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Senators

Invested

$8.13

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$4.62

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

Research grade

NeutralCapitals at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Capitals

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Capitals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCapitals 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Capitals 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Capitals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.