Capitals vs. Senators: O/U 5.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 59¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11

Over42¢Under58¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$265

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 58.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares9,452

Combined PnL+$282.46

Over3 traders

Total Value$189.67

Total Shares439

Combined PnL-$17.46

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 56.2¢	$5.1K	$5.3K	+$205.32	47% 500-558 (1058)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 39¢	$354.3	$410.63	+$56.33	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39¢	$192.82	$296.65	+$103.83
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.7¢	$161.48	$113.98	-$47.49
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 42¢	$171.71	$245.3	+$73.59	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 41¢	$138.52	$140.21	+$1.69	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 64.4¢	$64.9	$45.42	-$18.08	49% 444-470 (914)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 46.4¢	$6.29	$8.26	+$1.98	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 41.2¢	$3.43	$5	+$1.57	54% 383-322 (705)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 50.5¢	$5.1	$4.04	-$1.06	30% 134-317 (451)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$5,072.5

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$205.32

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$354.3

Value

$410.63

PnL

+$56.33

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Under$192.8239¢+$103.83

Over$161.4856.7¢-$47.49

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$171.71

Value

$245.3

PnL

+$73.59

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$138.52

Value

$140.21

PnL

+$1.69

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.9

Value

$45.42

PnL

-$18.08

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$6.29

Value

$8.26

PnL

+$1.98

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.43

Value

PnL

+$1.57

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.1

Value

$4.04

PnL

-$1.06

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.