No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 90¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$601.2

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 89.5¢

+20% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,774

Combined PnL+$669.89

No2 traders

Total Value$130.43

Total Shares1,449

Combined PnL-$68.69

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

700h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 72¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$266.6	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
FI firegold	Yesavg 76.7¢	$614.89	$721.85	+$106.96	59% 323-224 (547)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 80.5¢	$0	$280.33	+$280.33	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 81.2¢	$507.75	$133.95	+$16.01	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
RO rocky42019CTR	Noavg 19.1¢	$179.13	$107.93	-$71.19	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
NadmiCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$20	$22.5	+$2.5	47% 2036-2278 (4314)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$1,135.76

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$266.6

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

firegold

Yes

Invested

$614.89

Value

$721.85

PnL

+$106.96

Record

59%

323-224 (547)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

Value

$280.33

PnL

+$280.33

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$507.75

Value

$133.95

PnL

+$16.01

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

rocky42019CTR

Invested

$179.13

Value

$107.93

PnL

-$71.19

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

NadmiCTR<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Late

700h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.