Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 74¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$10.1K
$1.4K
62.8¢ → 73.6¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
368h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C0 C03B | Yesavg 62.5¢ | $7.5K | $8.8K | +$1.3K | 85% 719-126 (845) |
LI lissartter | Yesavg 63.8¢ | $410.35 | $465.51 | +$55.16 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73 | Yesavg 64.3¢ | $416.7 | $462 | +$45.3 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yesavg 69.2¢ | $336.07 | $340.22 | +$4.14 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Noavg 27.9¢ | $14.24 | $13.31 | -$0.8 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 26.1¢ | $1.31 | $1.31 | +$0 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Invested
$7,466.38
Value
$8.8K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
85%
719-126 (845)
Invested
$410.35
Value
$465.51
PnL
+$55.16
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$416.7
Value
$462
PnL
+$45.3
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
Invested
$336.07
Value
$340.22
PnL
+$4.14
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$14.24
Value
$13.31
PnL
-$0.8
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Invested
$1.31
Value
$1.31
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.