Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 26¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$7.8K
-$463.35
32.4¢ → 25.8¢
-21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
440h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
19 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaa | Noavg 66.2¢ | $3.9K | $4.3K | +$415.15 | 56% 836-645 (1481) |
C0 C03BCTR | Yesavg 32.4¢ | $3.9K | $3.1K | -$797.37 | 85% 719-126 (845) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $192.84 | $160.25 | -$32.59 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
LI lissartterCTR | Yesavg 34.7¢ | $203.18 | $150.7 | -$52.48 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 68.5¢ | $67.35 | $68.42 | +$5.49 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $65.03 | $63.49 | -$1.54 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
paddaaInvested
$3,859.78
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$415.15
Record
56%
836-645 (1481)
Invested
$3,874.51
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$797.37
Record
85%
719-126 (845)
Invested
$192.84
Value
$160.25
PnL
-$32.59
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
Invested
$203.18
Value
$150.7
PnL
-$52.48
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$67.35
Value
$68.42
PnL
+$5.49
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$65.03
Value
$63.49
PnL
-$1.54
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.