Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Kristiansund BK win on 2026-11-07?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 34¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 7

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$590.86

Smart Money Entry

35¢ → 33.5¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares12,901

Combined PnL-$663.61

No4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,399

Combined PnL+$72.76

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Yesavg 34.7¢	$3.9K	$3.3K	-$578.28	49% 591-610 (1201)
VE Venusian	Noavg 67.1¢	$922.62	$957.79	+$35.17	45% 2677-3239 (5916)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 35.8¢	$568.92	$488.24	-$80.68	52% 49335-46295 (95630)
LI Limousin	Noavg 67.1¢	$361.81	$380.02	+$18.21	46% 2696-3123 (5819)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 67.1¢	$344.71	$362.06	+$17.35	45% 2614-3160 (5774)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	57% 213-159 (372)
BI biying99999<$100	Noavg 66¢	$29.7	$31.72	+$2.02	48% 174-188 (362)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$26.69	$21.87	-$4.82	51% 28769-28143 (56912)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$10.34	$10.5	+$0.16	50% 33711-33978 (67689)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,880

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$578.28

Record

49%

591-610 (1201)

Venusian

Invested

$922.62

Value

$957.79

PnL

+$35.17

Record

45%

2677-3239 (5916)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$568.92

Value

$488.24

PnL

-$80.68

Record

52%

49335-46295 (95630)

Limousin

Invested

$361.81

Value

$380.02

PnL

+$18.21

Record

46%

2696-3123 (5819)

MadridTime

Invested

$344.71

Value

$362.06

PnL

+$17.35

Record

45%

2614-3160 (5774)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Yes

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

213-159 (372)

biying99999<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$31.72

PnL

+$2.02

Record

48%

174-188 (362)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.69

Value

$21.87

PnL

-$4.82

Record

51%

28769-28143 (56912)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.34

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

33711-33978 (67689)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.