Will Lyn 1896 FK win on 2026-09-06?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 52¢ · $623 held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$622.51
-$44.36
54.6¢ → 52¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 51.7¢ | $786.71 | $478.21 | -$12.73 | 58% 45442-32918 (78360) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 65.1¢ | $168.19 | $134.39 | -$33.8 | 58% 50269-36312 (86581) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $5.01 | $4.65 | -$0.36 | 59% 31875-22502 (54377) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.22 | $2.64 | +$2.42 | 53% 60065-52434 (112499) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $2.51 | $2.61 | +$0.1 | 74% 2423-864 (3287) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$786.71
Value
$478.21
PnL
-$12.73
Record
58%
45442-32918 (78360)
Invested
$168.19
Value
$134.39
PnL
-$33.8
Record
58%
50269-36312 (86581)
Invested
$5.01
Value
$4.65
PnL
-$0.36
Record
59%
31875-22502 (54377)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.22
Value
$2.64
PnL
+$2.42
Record
53%
60065-52434 (112499)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$2.51
Value
$2.61
PnL
+$0.1
Record
74%
2423-864 (3287)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.